White Sox Internal Trade Candidates
Ranking the likelihood of the Sox 40-man roster members being traded
As promised in my first Substack post on Tuesday, I am going to ramble on the White Sox potential trade candidates from within. They can of course trade prospects, but the scope of this exercise is confined to the current members of the 40-man roster. That list sits at 33 as of this post.
Speaking quickly to the prospects, the farm system is quite clearly a third tier group at this point in time and is of the absolute worst in the game. The graduations of Andrew Vaughn, Nick Madrigal, Garrett Crochet and Michael Kopech had left the top of the White Sox system bereft of any top-100 type prospects. The next rung of prospects have not improved their stock since their respective drafts. The trio of prep-arms from the 2019 and 2020 drafts - Jared Kelley, Andrew Dalquist and Matt Thompson - all had 2021 campaigns that consisted of some combination of struggling and injured. It’s too early to write these guys off and the system will improve. I just make that point because the system’s current status - in my view - increases the need they have to consider trading from the big league team.
While the Sox are obviously looking to add and not subtract, I am not sure that each and every transaction, in isolation, needs to improve the team in 2021.
As a team that will, in all likelihood, open the 2022 season as heavy favorites for their division, it would be a contrarian viewpoint to expect multiple “subtractions.” Even so, I still think the team could reorganize its MLB talent pool for 2022 in ways that would send off players that would otherwise be expected to make significant contribute. Some would say robbing Peter to pay Paul. Moves that, on a standalone basis, could make the team worse for 2021.
Regardless, the team will use free agency to improve the roster to some extent. The team cannot improve using only free agency. Given the aspirations, the budget constraints and where the payroll currently sits for 2022, I would expect at least a few players with MLB roles in 2022 getting sent off in talent swaps.
I do want to be clear that I am not trying to say the Sox are going to get worse to save money or they need to shed payroll or something like. They will have their constraints but it’s all relative. When all is said in done, the Sox will be comfortably into the top 10 of MLB payrolls.
Given all the that, I want to look into the possibilities that the team has to improve via trade. While I do plan to write about the external options that the Sox can bring in next, this is ranking each player currently on the active 40 man roster on their likelihood of being moved Let me know where you think I am wrong or how you would change the list. The higher the number, the lower the likelihood they would be traded.
TIER 1: THE CHAIRMAN’S LIST
#33A - Tim Anderson - Tim is the engine of the team & now one of the faces of MLB.
#33B - Jose Abreu - Abreu is the captain of the team. Despite being in a contract year and having two young first-basemen and Eloy Jimenez on the roster, there is no point in talking about trading Abreu. His consistent run producing is cemented into the 2022 roster plan.
TIER 2: LUIS ROBERT
#31 - Luis Robert - Robert is the best player on the team and under team control through 2027. He’s just scratching the surface on his potential. He stays.
TIER 3: TRUSTED VETS
#30-#28 - Lance Lynn, Liam Hendriks & Yasmani Grandal - All three players are productive veterans that were recently acquired/extended and fill important roles on the roster. There is no reason for a contending team to consider trading any of these players to create a hole.
TIER 4: CORE PIECES
#27 - Dylan Cease - Since the 2019 season when Cease first cracked big leagues, there have been rumors of both extension talks and of Cease potentially being included in trade packages. Of course, neither materialized. In 2021, Cease took the step forward that everybody hoped for. Cease made 32 starts and amassed 4.4 WAR to demand himself a spot in the rotation for years to come.
#26 - Michael Kopech - While Kopech was seemingly the ask of every opposing team in trade talks, the Sox front office hasn’t budged on moving the 25-year-old. Kopech has incredible natural talent and seemingly the makings of the top-of-the-rotation starter. In Rick Hahn’s postseason meet with the media, he stated clearly that the White Sox intend on giving Kopech a chance in the rotation. They haven’t been willing to move Kopech to this point, so no reason to think it happens now.
#25 - Lucas Giolito - While it is hard to believe, Giolto has just two years of control left before he reaches free agency. Given his importance to the rotation in 2022, it would seem an extension is more likely than a trade this offseason.
#24 - Yoan Moncada - Moncada brings exactly what the team needs more of - a left-handed bat, strong defense and on-base skills. Moncada has four years of controls remaining (last two years are club options) and has a considerable escalation in pay to round out his contract extension. While Moncada is an incredibly valuable player, he has always had his doubters and if the team were to try to curtail future commitments moving Moncada would be one painful way of doing so. It would need to be done in concert with multiple significant additions. With all that said, it is highly unlikely the Sox move their third baseman.
#23 - Eloy Jimenez - The possibility of trading Jimenez - to my surprise - has already been bandied about by fans in the early going of this offseason. Given the juxtaposition of Jimenez, Abreu, Sheets and Vaughn, plenty are doing the math and wondering how they can all fit together on the same roster. Jimenez was one of the biggest disappointments of the 2021 season. Jimenez has not proven he can stay healthy, he has not proven he deserves a spot in the lineup on defense and most surprisingly, he has not proven he can hit with any consistency over a full season. That said, his offensive ceiling is still massive and the team should not sell low on his bat at this time.
TIER 5: FUNGIBLES
#22 - Danny Mendick - An adequate fielder across the infield with good fundamentals and a familiarity in the clubhouse, this infielder and his two options keep him safe as the Sox wait for their middle infield prospect depth in the minors to develop.
#21 - Jose Ruiz - I am definitely surprised to have Ruiz this high. But to stress, this list is not ranking the best players on the team but rather the most unlikely-to-likely players to be traded. Ruiz, a catcher-to-pitcher-convert in 2016, has shown incredible roster resilience over the past three seasons maintaining not only his 40-man spot but an active roster spot after being out-of-options in 2020 & 2021. To Ruiz’s credit, he has improved annually and has rewarded the Sox for their belief in him. Not expected to be targeted in trade talks, Ruiz likely finds himself as one of the last players to make the active roster come March 2022, just like the past few seasons.
#20 - Blake Rutherford - With the allure of his pedigree fading harder than his wRC+ as he moves through the minor league ranks, I don’t find it all that likely that another team targets Rutherford. When the 40-man fills up, Rutherford may quickly find himself fearing his for his spot. That said, he’s not all that likely to be targeted in a trade.
#19 - Anderson Severino - A relative unknown, Severino was just recently added to the 40-man roster earlier this month. As the White Sox felt the need to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, the team seems to think there is a major league career in store for Severino. While scant in size & comfortably under 6-feet tall, Severino throws with his left hand and can get the ball home in a hurry. The Sox need bullpen depth and with the potential for the Sox to shake things up with the current composition of their current left-handed relief core, Severino seems to have more value with the Sox than he would elsewhere making him an unlikely trade candidate.
#18 - Ryan Burr - Burr has been fine as a depth piece out of the pen for the Sox in three of the last four seasons (he was out with injury in 2020). He figures to be a part of the revolving door of relievers down the stretch in 2022 once again. No reason to believe he’s traded.
#17 - Seby Zavala - I struggled with whether I should put Zavala higher on this list as he is a catcher which significantly raises his likelihood of being traded, but Zavala fits best in this tier of players. Zavala got an extended look in Chicago in 2021 and was frankly terrible behind the plate. The Sox will surely be bringing in at least one catcher this offseason and may give 40-man status to a young catcher already in the organization. 2021-2022 is yet another offseason where Zavala hopes to cling onto his 40-man spot.
#16 - Matt Foster - After a strong season in 2020, Foster was a source of frustration for Sox fans in 2021. The difference between the seasons is all in the batted profile. I don’t think Foster is as good as he was in 2020 and I don’t think he is as bad as he was in the 2021 season. He is somewhere in the middle. To Foster’s credit, the guy comes in and throws strikes and when right, he has shown a very effective change-up that has served as a neutralizing feature to quell opposing lefty bats.
I think Foster could be a useful piece of an MLB pen whether it is in a middle relief role or as a part of a team’s carrousel of AAA/MLB pitchers that have become an accustomed feature of pitching staffs today. However, there were whispers that Foster was included in trade talks that didn’t materialize in July and while you do have to give to get something in MLB, that’s not exactly a vote of confidence from the team.
And not to belabor on about Matt Foster, but his place on the roster is greatly affected by the current status of the pitching staff. The bullpen is going to need to be an area of emphasis in both the key spots and in the depth area.
Depth - Burdi/Fry given up on, Cordero TJS recovery
Contributors - Marshall TJS, Heuer trade
Key Contributors - Tepera FA, Kopech to rotation
That’s not even factoring in potentially trading Kimbrel. So a lot to sort out in the pen this offseason.
#15 - Reynaldo Lopez - Perhaps the most valuable guy in this tier of players, Lopez greatly improved his standing in the organization with his impressive second half of the 2021 season. The 27-year-old thrived in a role where he bounced between the rotation and bullpen. Given the pitching staff in flux, what Lopez brought in 2021 could be exactly what the team needs in 2022. Lopez, in all likelihood, is more valuable to the Sox then he would be on the market. However, if some rebuilding/re-tooling club’s pro scout fell in love with Lopez, it would not be crazy for Lopez to be included as a piece of a greater deal. Barring surprise, Lopez returns to the club as a form of insurance for both fifth starter Michael Kopech and the bullpen.
TIER 6: YOUNG & VALUABLE BUT STILL POSSIBLE
#14 - Romy Gonzalez - Gonzalez exploded onto the scene in 2021 to the tune of a 24-homer, .896 OPS campaign across 404 PAs between AA and AAA. Gonzalez was an 18th-rounder in 2018 and was not looked at as much of a prospect prior to 2021 but played in a way that got him high-praise from Director of Player Development & Ast. GM Chris Getz who lobbied for Gonzalez to get a September call-up. Possibly the heir to Leury Garcia’s utility throne, there seems to be a place for Gonzalez on the 2022 roster. However, the Sox will likely get very creative this offseason and I wouldn’t rule out Gonzalez being a part of a larger trade package as a guy they could conceivably choose to sell high on.
#13 - Gavin Sheets - Sheets got his first chance in the big leagues and took full advantage. Displaying the power his stature implies and coming up with plenty of timely hits. Sheets had played in the outfield for the Sox, but he was the worst defender of all the non-outfielders to be thrown out there due to injury. Sheets has plenty of fans in the organization including the skipper LaRussa. However, many prognosticators never anticipated the early success Sheets had. Sheets does bring the potential to be a middle-of-the-order lefty bat the the team has sought for years.
Adjacent to Andrew Vaughn, Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez, it is entirely reasonable to think the White Sox explore breaking up this glut to help address roster weaknesses elsewhere. Abreu isn’t going anywhere and Eloy isn’t likely to be dealt on the low with all the control he has left, so it would seem the Sox could move one of Sheets or Vaughn. Given Vaughn’s right-handedness and the fact that the market would - in my opinion - value Vaughn far more than Sheets, I think Vaughn is more likely to go then Sheets. The White Sox do not have to address this glut this offseason, but if they do not, they will be faced with the same scenario leading into 2023.
#12 - Adam Engel - I have not seen much towards the idea of the White Sox trading Engel. Engel has just two years left of control. While he has never proven that he can hit right-handed pitching to the point where he should play everyday for a contender, Engel has improved every season he has been with the big league club. In order to get the best value out of Engel, a team would need to deploy in CF daily so he may be better suited for a team that can use him that way. But of course, the Sox have Luis Robert controlling that position.
Engel is a valuable piece to the White Sox, but he could arguably be more valuable to a different contending team in a swap of useful pieces. If the White Sox moved Engel to bring in a different type of player, there would be plenty of opportunity to replace Engel with a traditional, defense-oriented fourth outfielder for a cheap price tag.
All that said, Engel experienced alarming injury issues in 2021 which brings some caution to his profile moving forward. Additionally, the team was faced with multiple significant notable injuries to their outfield and trading their premium bench piece after the onslaught of injuries last year would be questionable. I think trading Engel is going to be entertained more than most would think, but an Engel move would have to be executed with a few other moves to make sense.
#11 - Aaron Bummer - Despite continued peripheral success, Bummer had a bit of an aggravating 2021. While still one of the better left-handed relief options in the game, I was surprised when told that the Sox - a team in need of relief help - would consider trading a guy like Bummer. While not mentioned yet, fellow southpaw Garrett Crochet can also find himself in trade talks. You would think the team would only move one or the other if they even move one of the two.
Aaron Bummer’s 2020 extension gives the White Sox rights for Bummer for the next five seasons at an AAV of $5.3M. With the last two years being club options, the team is only on the hook for $13M over the next three years. Needless to say, Bummer’s contract makes him a very a valuable piece. Despite a clear role in the White Sox bullpen, the team could surprisingly look to cash in on the excess value that comes with Bummer’s brilliant extension. I like trading controlled relievers for the same reason I hate trading for controlled relievers - their value can dissipate in the blink of an eye. Bummer represents another surprising trade candidate that would need to be executed in concert with other moves but in their closed quarters, I don’t think the White Sox would rule out this possibility.
#10 - Garrett Crochet - Absent any top-100-type prospects in the organization, Garrett Crochet represents one of a few players that could headline a significant trade for the White Sox. Much like Michael Kopech in 2021, it is arguable that the White Sox are not getting their best value out of Crochet in the bullpen. Drafted as a starter in the first round of the 2020 draft, Crochet is yet to appear in a minor league game or make a start as a professional. Unlike like Michael Kopech, the White Sox have not given any indication that this young hurler has a spot in the rotation in 2022. While Hahn acknowledged the team views Crochet as a starter, he also acknowledged they are not totally sure about how to make that happen.
The team is unlikely to send a contributor to the minors to be groomed as a starter and the team is equally unlikely to rely on the gangly lefty in the MLB rotation as he is yet to eclipse 65 innings in any season - professional or amateur. Crochet’s value is best served in the rotation. There is not a particularly enticing route for Crochet to start with the White Sox. With that in mind, there is a clear argument that Crochet may be more valuable with another organization that is further away from contention and has the luxury and time to develop this young arm.
Gauging the value of Crochet is another herculean task. He can be valued vastly different from organization-to-organization. The White Sox selected Crochet after just one start in the COVID-19-cancelled 2020 NCAA Season. He was then featured as a freak show bullpen weapon in 2020 with elite velocity and came back in 2021 as a very capable, yet not quite other-worldly bullpen arm in 2021. It’s anyone’s guess how the market values Crochet, but I think the Sox find out this offseason and we’ll see if the league values him enough to warrant the Sox moving him.
#9 - Andrew Vaughn - A former top-5 prospect, the White Sox put their vote of confidence in the former Golden Spikes winner by adding him to the 2021 Opening Day MLB Roster despite never playing above A-ball. Playing out of position for the majority 2021, Vaughn’s rookie season had ups-and-downs as the promising bat developed on the fly. As mentioned numerous times above, Abreu, Jimenez, Sheets and Vaughn represent a bit of a roster crunch and the team, while not forced, may ultimately chose to deal from this saturation of bats with little defensive utility.
Going back to the 2019 draft, the front office and scouting department was rumored to have varying beliefs towards selecting Vaughn third overall with some favoring now Padres prospect CJ Abrams. If Reinsdorf is really giving manager and friend LaRussa the juice like some believe, Vaughn is absolutely on the table for trades in moves that would favor building the best team in the short term (e.g. Ketel Marte, Bryan Reynolds, etc.). That being said, if General Manager Rick Hahn were to have his way, I think the team would be more likely to be patient with Vaughn with hopes that the 23-year-old finds the Paul Goldschmidt-Josh Donaldson-like offensive potential.
TIER #7 - CBA-PENDING CASH DUMP
#8 - Dallas Keuchel - After a horrid 2021, the former Cy Young really has no claim to a roster sport in 2022. Of course, Keuchel’s $18M price tag for 2022 increases his chances of making the Opening Day roster significantly. In most theoretical scenarios, trading Keuchel would come with getting a bad contract in return so unless matters behind-the-scenes prompt the Sox to look to move Keuchel for “change-of-scenery” purposes, there probably isn’t all that much to gain by moving Keuchel.
That said, there is a huge IF for Keuchel specifically and this piece in general. And that comes with the pending CBA that expires December 1st. It has been rumored that a new CBA could include a payroll floor. In the case that such a change would be a part of a new CBA, Keuchel’s likelihood of being traded goes up significantly as a rebuilding team in scorched-earth mode may need to add a vet like Keuchel to meet a potential payroll floor.
TIER #8 - TWITTER TRADE PACKAGE FAVORITES
#6-#7 - Jimmy Lambert & Jonathan Stiever - Despite’s Lambert’s advanced age for his relative experience, these two arms have a good deal in common. Both arms followed up strong 2018’s with further success in 2019. However, these two were caught in between the big league roster and AAA-level for the 2020 COVID season. Since the start of 2020, both have dealt with injury and have been tormented by the awful pitching environment in AAA-Charlotte.
The righty arms have yet to cement roles with the big league club but have routinely been mentioned as trade candidates. As a couple of the favorites of fans crafting trade packages on Twitter, this offseason could be the one where one of these guys actually gets sent to a new organization. For instance, if the White Sox got involved in the expected fire sale of the Oakland A’s, I could see one of these guys being included in an A’s package that typically favors quantity in trade returns.
TIER #9 - BATS WITH NO ROLES IN CHICAGO
If the new CBA includes the National League getting a DH, these next three guys have a heightened chance of getting traded.
#5 - Zack Collins - Despite nobody outside of the White Sox organization ever believing Collins could catch, the Sox chose to break camp with Collins as the back-up catcher over veteran back-up Jon Lucroy. Collins showed flashes that he could hit but his bat tumbled as the season went on. As far as catching, Collins never showed me anything to believe he should be behind the plate. In the second half of the season, the Sox navigated the back up catching options (Collins and Zavala) in a way that ensured they would be able to keep an option on Collins. So the team could keep Collins and option him when he inevitably does not fit the roster, or the retained option increases the marketability of Collins in a potential trade scenario.
While I may be one of the only ones left, I still think there is a possibility that Collins hits in the MLB. Moving him off the catching position and having him focus on hitting may help him reach his offensive potential. Collins has always seemed to be a natural fit to the Brewers/A’s type franchises and the NL adding a DH could open up further options with a rebuilding team. Collins could be swapped with another team’s fledgling, struggling 40-man member or Collins could be a throw-in piece of a larger deal. Either way, this guy does not fit on an improved 2022 White Sox roster.
#4 - Yermin Mercedes - Getting the nod over Adolfo here is solely a product of Adolfo being out of options. Mercedes was supposedly sought after last offseason before the Cheeseburger Kid’s notoriety shot up following an incredible, yet short-lived string of success in April 2022. A DH in the NL would significantly increase his chances of being moved but either way, this guy does not have the support of the clubhouse he was once apart of and in turn, does not have the support of the front office. The lack of defensive utility and very public maturity issues significantly weighs down the upside of his right-handed bat. Whether another club takes a chance on Mercedes as a minor trade pick-up or not, Mercedes does not seem long for the White Sox organization and should not be viewed as a player with much value in a trade.
#3 - Micker Adolfo - Once the shining acquisition of the White Sox’ resurgence in Latin America behind Marco Paddy, injuries have derailed the progress of Adolfo’s career. Adolfo was largely healthy in 2021 and hit 25 home runs in 405 PA’s across AA & AAA as the monstrous right-handed hitter appeared in over 100 games for the first time since 2017.
Adolfo is out of options, so the White Sox have the following choices:
Add to active roster
Try to sneak through waivers
Trade Adolfo
He has no fit on the active roster and he is not likely to be snuck through waivers as a guy with light tower power and a cannon for a right arm. As such, the best option for the Sox would seem to be trading Adolfo. The DH in the NL would be the best case scenario for Adolfo’s career. A rebuilding team with the flexibility to give an unproven bat a chance can look to Franmil Reyes and Jorge Soler and dream on Adolfo a bit. While not likely to bring back much in return, the Sox may have an opportunity to swap projects with another club before all value expires.
#2 - Jake Burger - Sitting behind Yoan Moncada and the glut of first-basemen on the MLB depth chart, it is hard to envision a role for Burger in Chicago. In 2021, Burger skipped right to AAA from A ball in his first affiliated appearance since 2017. Restrained by repeat Achilles tendon ruptures in 2018 & 2019 that then spawned mental obstacles for the former first-rounder, Burger impressed all spectators with his return to action in 2021. Burger even contributed in the big leagues in a short stint as Moncada nursed a short-term injury.
As a guy who has pedigree and has had success in the highest level of the minors, Burger looks to be a player deserving of a true shot at the MLB level. With no place for him in Chicago, Burger is a natural trade piece for the club anticipating addressing weaknesses. Despite success in AAA and a well-rounded profile, Burger’s trade value could be in question for a few reasons. Burger’s past struggles off the field certainly add to his risk profile right or wrong. Past that, Burger isn’t exactly an athlete (relatively speaking) and has never looked particularly smooth on the field.
Undoubtedly, the team will explore moving Burger, but there is absolutely a scenario where the Sox hang onto Burger if they were to find the league does not value Burger the way the Sox do. Burger would likely have more value in another organization but with the Sox having options on Burger and a trajectory to the MLB that warrants caution, the Sox may have to hang onto the depth and let the situation play out.
TIER #10 - CRAIG KIMBREL
#1 - Craig Kimbrel - Following the completion of the trade on July 30th, Hahn spoke of the Kimbrel acquisition as a move that was not just for 2021, but also 2022. Of course, that was before Kimbrel’s almost entirely ineffective second half. And true to that sentiment, the White Sox did pick up Kimbrel’s option earlier this week. While some were surprised the White Sox picked up the $16M option, I was more surprised at the honesty from Hahn talking about picking up the option. Here is one quote from Hahn per Daryl Van Schouwen:
"It didn’t work out the way we wanted last year, so perhaps there is a better use of his skills than how we were doing it. So we have to reconsider his usage with us versus a potential trade."
Hahn elaborated to Scott Merkin:
“What we have to figure out is whether it makes the most sense to have Craig in a White Sox uniform going forward or is there a better use of that spot and him via trade,”
That is an uncharacteristically direct set of quotes from Hahn in reference to a potential trade. Hahn then voluntarily confirmed his own understanding of sunk costs and assured that the team is not doubling down on a decision that may have not gone to plan. There will be obstacles with Kimbrel’s second half performance and his 2022 price tag. The Sox may end up having to eat some money. Hahn will try to sell teams that Kimbrel’s struggles were a product of the team’s misuse of the veteran closer and opposing teams can dream on Kimbrel’s first half where he was the best reliever in baseball. Considering the way the Kimbrel-Sox union went this summer and how Hahn is speaking of the situation this week, I am fully expecting a Kimbrel trade to come to fruition.
As always, let me know what you think. Subscribe to the email list if you want these ramblings to go straight to your email when posted. My next drop will go into who the Sox may target in trades and potential trades packages/partners. Thanks for reading.
Geez, I hadn't even considered the implications of a payroll floor. Really interesting and insightful stuff, Brian.
Romy, Vaughn and Sheets have Athletics written all over them.